Why 2026 could be ‘the exception to the rule’: ClearBridge

InvestorDaily

The US$200 billion global equity manager ClearBridge Investments says it is confident the US economy will remain resilient and avoid a recession this year. According to the firm’s US recession dashboard, which tracks 12 variables across consumer, business and financial activity that have historically signalled an approaching recession, the US remains “firmly in the green”. That confidence holds despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil, including renewed tensions around the Iran war in recent weeks, as well as six weeks of roughly flat performance for the S&P 500. 

Despite these concerns, the firm’s head of economic and market strategy, Jeffrey Schulze, said the lull in US equity performance simply reflects a natural pause after a period of sharp gains.  “The index delivered a 14.9 per cent price return for the quarter, its 12th strongest quarterly gain since 1950,” Schulze said. “The market has typically advanced further following past similarly sharp rallies, averaging gains of 5.5 per cent over the next three months and 10.4 per cent over the next six.”

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